Cover story 1 - Investing in Africa
Five years ago, nobody would have described Africa as a safe haven. But as accepted shelters such as the U.S. and European government bonds and shares continue to provide disappointing returns - and the prospect of far worse than that - Global investors were forced to cast their nets wider.
Some of the obvious destinations such as the popular BRIC quartet of Brazil, Russia, India and China, are looking expensive now, if there are opportunities for quick-witted investors to buy into the market bottom in recent years, particularly in India.
SA was one of those expensive emerging markets, confirmed until mid-September by a strong rand.
People in search of high returns have now to look at what are known as frontier markets. These include many countries on several continents, Africa such as Nigeria and Kenya, Argentina, South America, Europe, Romania and Kazakhstan in Central Asia.
It should be as natural for SA investors to invest elsewhere on the continent as it is for the British investment in continental Europe or the Americans to invest in Canada and Mexico, but it is not.
The legacy of the apartheid years meant Lagos and Nairobi are much less known than the SA fund managers in London, New York or Hong Kong. SA pension funds can now invest even 5% of their assets in the rest of Africa, on top of the allocation of 25% abroad, but few have accepted the offer. There are some structural problems that make it difficult (see page 36), including lack of liquidity in all African stock markets other than the JSE itself.
Eric Kibe, Sanlam, which manages Frontier Markets Fund Africa Nairobi, Kenya says African markets took a beating over the last three months."But this was due to factors beyond our control. The risk appetite of international investors has been reduced due to the threat of a double-dip recession in the United States."
Nothando Ndebele, head of sub-Saharan African research in the Renaissance BJM, says that 40% of Africa's GDP is made up of agriculture, but it is difficult for a global fund manager to invest in this sector. "There are parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo who are so rich they can produce three crops a year.
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There is already a large banking sector in Africa, which dominates most stock exchanges, but very little mortgage finance, while short-term and life insurance are both at an early stage in their evolution. Though the African Union is not held in high
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